How's the market?

Question: How's the market?



Answer: How do you want it to be?



There's no doubt that it was a rough summer for sellers this year. The average days on market is growing. Buyers are on the attack and they are ravaging the sellers once they decide to buy. Homes that should have sold in 30 days for a reasonable price are still sitting and prices are dropping. Homes that would have sat on the market for longer periods before are now selling. It's very unpredictable but one thing is for certain. If you do not have to sell this year then wait until spring market.


I often read the national market forecasts and in doing so this spring I reported national forecasts (and hoped they were right) that the future looked hopeful and we should begin to see inventory absorbed and by 3rd quarter we should have a supply more in line with the demand. I can tell you now that this did not happen in Indiana. Do not fear...my Realtor colleagues will tell you that while the phones and sales were slow in June & July, mid-August was busier than we have ever been in any past mid-August. We usually slow down in August & September (known as September slump) because school starts and people are getting settled. This year we are hopping. We sold more homes in the past two weeks in my office than in all of June & July combined. Whew...we needed that.


When I say: "How do you want it to be?" my sarcasm comes from reading the forecasters, news stories and experts stories on the Real Estate market. I'll share some of those below so that you can see why some are so confused and why there is so much uncertainty.



Wednesday, August 29th The Herald Times in Bloomington Indiana reported a news story from the Associated Press from New York that read: "U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, the steepest rate of decline since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987, the research group said Tuesday.

The decline in home prices around the nation shows no evidence of a market recovery anytime soon, one of the architects of the index said. MacroMarkets LLC Chief Economist Robert Shiller said the declining residential real estate market "shows no signs of slowing down."

The report came a day after the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes dropped for a fifth straight month in July while the number of unsold homes hit a record level.

The S&P / Case-Schiller quarterly index tracks price trends among existing single family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier. Fifteen of the cities surveryed showed a year-over-year decline in prices in June. Detroit led with an 11 percent drop from June of last year."



Friday, August 24 news.yahoo.com/ Washington(Reuters) - The headline states: July new home sales and durables orders rise which offers a compelling lead into an interesting story. A few tidbits to encourage you to click on the link - http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070824/bs_nm/usa_economy_newhomes_dc_4
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new single-family U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in July and new orders for durable goods posted strong gains that underlined the economy's strength just before a credit crisis socked financial markets.

New home sales rose 2.8 percent to an 870,000 annual pace last month, reversing two months of declines, and inventories eased, a Commerce Department report showed on Friday.
Analysts were expecting new home sales to dip to an 820,000 sales pace. Home sales in June were revised to an annual rate of 846,000 from the previously reported 834,000 rate.
- and -
Meanwhile, the supply of homes available for sale eased to a seasonally adjusted 533,000, the lowest since January 2006, the Commerce Department said. That represents a 7.5 months' supply of homes available at the current sales pace.
The supply of new homes available for sale is down 7 percent from July 2006, the biggest 12-month drop since January 1998.
The median sales price rose to $239,500 in July from $230,600 in June. That was down 3.4 percent from the same month a year earlier, the biggest 12-month decline since October 2001.
Good story - you should check it out.
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It seems to me that this could be the typical case of the national trends starting at the coastal states and working themselves inward. In all of the articles, statistics and inventory studies that I have it appears that we, here in Indiana, are running 3 to 6 months or so behind the national trends. We did not experience the drastic depreciation levels of some regions but we did not experience the 25 to 28% appreciations rates during the good years either. I can't deny that we are seeing housing depreciation but I do not expect it to be at the same levels of those regions that had drastic appreciation. What goes up does go down but if it did not go up too high, it will not have too far to fall.